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With All The Sanctions in Place, is Russia a Good Investment?

Posted on Posted in Emerging Markets

With regards to the current conflict in the Ukraine, every trade sanction levied against Russia in the past and future should be considered important to watch. The current sanctions vary from industry to industry and from region to region, but in general they are a way for foreign governments to impose a punishment on the Russian government for its involvement in what many world officials consider an “illegal” war.

As concerned investors, we have to look at the entire picture and forecast if Russia will remain a good market to invest in despite these sanctions, especially when we consider that the Russian economy has not been growing at the same rate as other countries of comparable size and population. In fact, the economy shrunk by 0.4% in 2013. It may take a few months to see the impact, although it also opens doors for more exporting from other countries that have not established sanctions on Russia, such as Brazil, which has seen an 80% increase in exports to Russia since that time. In theory, this would make for what I consider to be a good investment opportunity, however we do not know how long this trend can continue.

It is very difficult to predict what the outcome of the Russian-Ukraine conflict will bring, and equally difficult to speculate how long it will last. That said, I would not say Russia is a great investment option right now and I would suggest finding other investment opportunities elsewhere, at least until sanctions are removed or that the impact of these sanctions are more widely understood.